TRANSFORMATION OF U.S. ELECTORATE AS A FACTOR OF POLITICAL TURBULENCE
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TRANSFORMATION OF U.S. ELECTORATE AS A FACTOR OF POLITICAL TURBULENCE
Annotation
PII
S268667300000596-5-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Marina Krimchaninova 
Vladislav Fedorov
Edition
Pages
79-94
Abstract
The article explores the reasons of the growth of the American electoral polariza tion during the presidential election campaign in 2016. If in 2016 the electoral weight of Afro-Americans, Latinos and Asian people was 28, 5%, then by 2050 their percent age in the structure of the electorate might reach 50%. Basing on the data of the so cial-demographic structure of voters and the electoral statistics, the conclusion is made about the inevitable structural changes in U.S. political system. With the help of estimation of mean square deviation the results of presidential elections in the USA over a period of 1900-2016 are analyzed. In 2016 the electoral polarization reached the highest point since 1968 and will increase in the future that might lead to the growth of political turbulence. Considerable electoral advantage of Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump is explained not by a bigger support of the can didate from the democrats throughout the country, but by local success in California and New York. The electorate support of Tramp was more evenly distributed throughout the country that was one the factors of his success. American society in the first quarter of the XXI century is undergoing a serious political crisis that can lead to deep transformations of the political system. It will be more difficult to predict political processes. The most evident reforms are the follow ing: the transition from the majority election system to the proportional one on the election of Congress, the appearance of the third party and transition to the direct presidential election. The importance of the Election Day in the USA is decreasing rapidly. More and more citizens are voting in advance that affects the strategy and tactics of the elec tion campaign. Nowadays candidates are trying to bring undecided voters on their side as early as possible. One of the most effective ways of predicting the results of the presidential election in the USA is still the method called "13 keys to the White House", created by the American politologist A. Lichtman and the soviet mathematician V. Keilis-Borok. This method based on the analysis of the traditions of political culture and political process, demands careful examination for adaptation to other fields of study in politology.
Keywords
electoral polarization, presidential election in the USA, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Allan Lichtman
Date of publication
09.07.2017
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0
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116
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