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THE FUTURE OF NAFTA
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THE FUTURE OF NAFTA
Annotation
PII
S268667300000616-7-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Elena G. Komkova 
ORCID: 0000-0002-6424-8617
Edition
Issue 2 (578)
Pages
5-19
Abstract
The article analyzes the situation around the NAFTA re-negotiation, which started on August 16, 2017. The U.S. Government entered negotiations seeking a substantial rebalance of trade policies that is perceived as highly unfavorable by Canada and Mexico. This article describes the negotiating positions of the three participating countries, their main principles and goals, major controversies, as well as the alignment of pro-NAFTA and contra-NAFTA forces. The growing complexity of the NAFTA re-negotiations, which became evident during the fourth round of negotiation in mid-October, has resulted in the delay by 3 weeks of the fifth round and the extension of negotiations into 2018. This is not to say that NAFTA negotiations are doomed. But, it does mean that the negotiations are in trouble and there is a reasonable prospect of NAFTA's termination. The article assesses some of the post-NAFTA scenarios and their impact on the North American economy and integration. Among those analyzed are short-term and long-term perspectives. Possible scenarios look as follows: reaction of the American Congress to the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from NAFTA, fallback to the original Canada-U.S. FTA (CUSFTA), opening by the U.S.A. of two parallel trade negotiations with Canada, and Mexico, reversion to the WTO Most Favored Nation regime. 18 The research is based on official negotiating positions released in 2017 by Mexico, Washington and Ottawa, press-releases, speeches and interviews by President D. Trump, Secretary of Commerce W. Ross, and U.S. Trade Representative R. Lighthizer, think-tanks commentaries, hearings held in June at the US International Trade Commission, trade statistics, media op-eds and analytics.
Keywords
NAFTA, NAFTA re-negotiation, possible scenarios, North American economic integration, regional free trade agreements, D. Trump, American protectionism, U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade and economic relationship
Date of publication
09.02.2018
Number of purchasers
8
Views
1272
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0.0 (0 votes)
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Additional sources and materials

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 16. Martin E., Wingrove J. U.S. Demands Risk Scuttling NAFTA Talks. Bloomberg, 29.09.2017. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/articles/2017-09-29/u-s-demands-on-nafta-are-said-to-risk-scuttling-trade-talks (accessed 30.09.2017). 
 17. Komkova E.G. 2017. Politicheskaya bor'ba vokrug NAFTA // SShA ❖ Kanada: ehkonomika, politika, kul'tura. № 4. S. 34-48 
 18. Lavrovskaya T.V. 1987. Severoamerikanskaya integratsiya: ehkonomicheskie i politicheskie aspekty. M.: Nauka. 272 s

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